theory of change
Accelerating the Realignment
The emerging field of responsible technology is to social media what clean tech is to the fossil fuel industry. Just as the environmental damage caused by burning hydrocarbons went unaddressed for years, the attention economy underlying social media has created significant negative externalities—both subjective and intersubjective—that we are only now beginning to understand. Polarization, fake news, junk values, information overload, addictive use, isolation, and influencer culture are just a few examples. However, as with climate change, these are merely symptoms of a market failure due to perverse incentives and unaccounted-for costs.
At the epicenter of the attention economy lies the imperative to increase time on device, unbothered by what it leaves behind. Given the unprecedented reach of social media today, anyone paying attention will realize that those who work at these companies are no longer merely designing products; they are designing people and society as a whole. The faster we collectively move away from the attention economy, the better.
Donella Meadows' framework for changing complex systems teaches us that systemic change requires a paradigm shift—the deepest lever there is. Such a shift basically comes in three forms: external, internal, or inter-relational. New law or shifting culture, self-regulation, or the third: competitive market pressure. Passing new laws is slow, crude, and easily corrupted. Culture is not the lever here; it is the hostage of social media—and it can hardly "blink twice." Self-regulation? We can all see how well that has gone over. Forutnately, there is one other.
"Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome."
— Charlie Munger
Competitive pressure is by far the most effective way through. A new entrant can embrace a new mindset, set new internal goals and rules to explore new revenue streams (serving, again, the user perhaps, anyone?), in a self-sustaining way realigning incentives with consumer interests at heart. Competitive market pressure is the most non-negotiable: no complaining about feasibility, lack of demand, or other moot issues.
Therfore, I am confident a market-based solution is the most potent forcing function behind for a new paradigm. A future without the dominance of surveillance capitalism, the attention economy, and addictive technology.
However, introducing a new product to the market and competing as a small entrant against entrenched, deep-pocketed incumbents is a daunting challenge—further compounded by reliance on network effects, entrenched consumer habits, and the need to find a new, disruptive, viable business model.
Needless to say, it is hard to overstate the magnitude of these obstacles, let alone overcoming them all simultaneously. So a viable alternative must do more than eliminate surveillance capitalism, persuasive technology, and, ultimately, user regret in order to effectively transition away from the attention economy. As historian Rutger Bregman likes to say, the "I have a nightmare" line doesn't flow from the tongue as well as Dr. King's.Consumers are unlikely to switch to an unproven "me-too" product that merely removes tracking and ads, enforces limits, or promises restrained self-regulation through, say, the digital-detox/diet software add-ons that have emerged recently. Applying bandages where surgery is required won't work.
Instead, as Meadows' framework points out, a new paradigm needs something more. We need to go with the grain of humanity, not against it. Essentially, rendering doing the right thing not the noble choice, but more importantly, the self-interested superior choice. A new paradigm needs to pull, not push. Meaning, it needs to pull individuals with both a product that is better in every way and a vision that is new and exciting. The subtle distinction here comes down to this: the question isn't how do we spend less time on our phones. The right question to ask is: How do we spend more time on our life?
To better understand how something better could be offered in the future, it's crucial to better identify what we are being offered today. James Williams argues compellingly that we have entrusted our lives to something akin to a corrupted GPS. We were promised a companion, but rather than helping us define our destination and navigate toward it, this particular technology has proven to be adversarial in nature—guiding billions of people toward an awful destination they never intended to reach. The key difference, of course, is that we inexplicably continue to rely on this adversarial technology, whereas, after the third wrong turn, we would have thrown a faulty GPS out of the car. More generally, the ultimate purpose of today's sphinx-like adversarial technology can best be classified through the lens of an entertainment, information, and personal communication technology in one.
As such, entertainment can be fun, but life is short, and amusing ourselves to death is tragic. As for the latter two, as technologies to inform or bond, social media has proven itself worse than useless—for the individual, it has proven counterproductive.
Viewed through these first principles, the obstacles are seemingly insurmountable, yet there is a narrow way through.Competitive pressure is by far the most effective way through. A new entrant can embrace a new mindset, set new internal goals and rules to explore new revenue streams (serving, again, the user perhaps, anyone?), in a self-sustaining way realigning incentives with consumer interests at heart. Competitive market pressure is the most non-negotiable: no complaining about feasibility, lack of demand, or other moot issues.
Therfore, I am confident a market-based solution is the most potent forcing function behind for a new paradigm. A future without the dominance of surveillance capitalism, the attention economy, and addictive technology.
However, introducing a new product to the market and competing as a small entrant against entrenched, deep-pocketed incumbents is a daunting challenge—further compounded by reliance on network effects, entrenched consumer habits, and the need to find a new, disruptive, viable business model.
Needless to say, it is hard to overstate the magnitude of these obstacles, let alone overcoming them all simultaneously. So a viable alternative must do more than eliminate surveillance capitalism, persuasive technology, and, ultimately, user regret in order to effectively transition away from the attention economy. As historian Rutger Bregman likes to say, the "I have a nightmare" line doesn't flow from the tongue as well as Dr. King's.Consumers are unlikely to switch to an unproven "me-too" product that merely removes tracking and ads, enforces limits, or promises restrained self-regulation through, say, the digital-detox/diet software add-ons that have emerged recently. Applying bandages where surgery is required won't work.
Instead, as Meadows' framework points out, a new paradigm needs something more. We need to go with the grain of humanity, not against it. Essentially, rendering doing the right thing not the noble choice, but more importantly, the self-interested superior choice. A new paradigm needs to pull, not push. Meaning, it needs to pull individuals with both a product that is better in every way and a vision that is new and exciting. The subtle distinction here comes down to this: the question isn't how do we spend less time on our phones. The right question to ask is: How do we spend more time on our life?
To better understand how something better could be offered in the future, it's crucial to better identify what we are being offered today. James Williams argues compellingly that we have entrusted our lives to something akin to a corrupted GPS. We were promised a companion, but rather than helping us define our destination and navigate toward it, this particular technology has proven to be adversarial in nature—guiding billions of people toward an awful destination they never intended to reach. The key difference, of course, is that we inexplicably continue to rely on this adversarial technology, whereas, after the third wrong turn, we would have thrown a faulty GPS out of the car. More generally, the ultimate purpose of today's sphinx-like adversarial technology can best be classified through the lens of an entertainment, information, and personal communication technology in one.
As such, entertainment can be fun, but life is short, and amusing ourselves to death is tragic. As for the latter two, as technologies to inform or bond, social media has proven itself worse than useless—for the individual, it has proven counterproductive.
Viewed through these first principles, the obstacles are seemingly insurmountable, yet there is a narrow way through.
Felix Meritis
Founder and CEO